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Rich Moran                                                                                                             8/1/2025

I’ve been looking for a way to put some kind of a short position in the live cattle market through a spread.  Live Cattle is obviously very expensive these days, and as we all know, calling the top of a move like this is a very difficult thing to do.

Over the past month or so, the October Live Cattle over/minus October Lean Hogs Spread (LEV25-HEV25) has made a big upward move from a 14-day low of $110.175 on 6/23/25 to its 52-week high of $140.725 this past Wednesday (7/30/25). Since then, it has come back down a little more than $7.00 and settled today at 133.625.  It is now down to a level where it is flirting with both the 14-day and 21-day moving averages. 

Lean Hogs have somewhat stabilized as Mexico made an extremely large purchase of Lean Hogs trying to get ahead of possible tariffs.  Then the tariff rates were extended for 90 days, further stabilizing the Lean Hog market. This could help put some downward pressure on the Cattle/ Hog spread. 

If we are fortunate enough to have this spread, LEV25-HEV25, settle below the 14-day and 21-day moving averages, I think it could be a good time to short it.  It just might be a more comfortable way to slide some Live Cattle shorts into our position.

Following up on past trade ideas:

• 7/30/25: ZWZ25-ZCZ25 (DEC’25 Wheat-DEC’25 Corn Spread)

           Today’s Settlement: 126¼, I suggested getting short on the open yesterday (Thursday) at 132 (Wednesday’s settlement) or better. It opened on its high of 131¾, ¼ tic lower. We missed for now and will re-evaluate on Monday.

• 7/23/25: ZWZ25-ZWH26 (DEC’25-MAR’26 Wheat Spread))                           

Today’s Settlement: -18¾, Long at -18½

Risk 3½ cents (-22) or $175 Per Spread to make 10 cents (-8½) or $500 Per Spread.

• 7/18/25: ZLZ25-ZLH26 (DEC’25-MAR’26 Soybean Oil Spread) 

      Today’s settlement: +0.02, Long at +0.15

             Risk 0.30 cents (-0.15) or $180 to make 0.90 cents (+1.05) or $540

• 7/16/25 (6/20/2025) (ZCU25-ZCZ25 (SEP-DEC’25 Corn Spread)                                                                              

       Today’s Settlement: -21½, Short at -17½ 

             Risk 3½ cents (-14) or $175 to make 8.5 cents (-26) or $425

             I suggest moving your stop up to -17½ to scratch.  I hate turning winners into losers

• 7/9/2025: (LEG26x2)-GFQ25-ZCU25 

(FEB’26 Live Cattle x 2, AUG ’25 Feeder Cattle, SEP ’25 Corn – Cattle Crush Spread)

 Today’s Settlement: -271.60, Still looking to get short and waiting to settle below the 14-day and 21-day moving averages.  

• 7/2/25: 7/2/2025:  ZMQ25-ZMZ25 (AUG-DEC’25 Soybean Meal Spread)

      Today’s Settlement: -13.0, I suggested buying this spread if it settles above the 14-day and 21-day moving averages. It did settle above both those averages today. I am looking to buy it Monday at today’s settlement of -13.0 or better as long as it is still above both the 14-day and 21-day moving averages. 

 If you have any thoughts/questions on this article or any questions at all in regard to the commodities futures markets, please use this link  Sign Up Now

 Rich Moran

Senior Commodities Broker

RMoran@walshtrading.co

Direct: (312)985-0298

Cell: (773)502-5321

Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.

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